Consumo de alcohol y mortalidad por cardiopatía isquémica en Rusia Alcohol consumption and ischemic heart disease mortality in Russia

Autores/as

  • Yury E. Razvodovsky Grodno State Medical University, Belarus. Send correspondence to: Yury E. Razvodovsky. Grodno State Medical University, Belarus. Grodno, str. Gorky 80, 230008. Tel.: + 375 0152 70 18 84. E-mail: razvodovsky@tut.by

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.20882/adicciones.114

Palabras clave:

cardiopatía isquémica, consumo de alcohol, análisis de series temporales, Rusia ischemic heart disease, alcohol consumption, ARIMA time series analysis, Russia

Resumen

Se ha insistido reiteradamente en que el alcohol proporciona la explicación más plausible, tanto para la alta frecuencia en la tasa de mortalidad cardiovascular de Rusia, como para las drásticas fluctuaciones que experimenta durante las últimas décadas. Parecería también que otros factores de riesgo tradicionales identificados en estudios epidemiológicos tendrían poco valor predictivo. El objetivo de este estudio consiste en analizar la relación entre el consumo de alcohol y las tasas de mortalidad por cardiopatía isquémica (CI) en Rusia. Para ello se utiliza el análisis de series temporales estandarizadas por edad y por sexo de los datos de mortalidad por CI masculina y femenina durante el período 1980-2005 en relación con el consumo global de alcohol. El análisis muestra como efectivamente el consumo de alcohol se asocia significativamente con las tasas tanto de mortalidad masculina como femenina por CI. Un aumento de 1 litro en el consumo de alcohol anual se traduciría en un aumento del 3,9% en la tasa de mortalidad por CI en hombres y un 2,7% en las mujeres. Como conclusión, este estudio proporcionan apoyo indirecto a la hipótesis de que las profundas fluctuaciones en Rusia en la mortalidad por CI durante las últimas décadas podría estar relacionado con el alcohol, como lo indica la estrecha relación temporal entre ambos fenómenos.
It has been repeatedly emphasized that alcohol provides the most plausible explanation for both the high rate of cardiovascular mortality rate and its dramatic fluctuations in Russia over recent decades, while other traditional risk factors identified in epidemiological studies have little predictive value. The aim of this study was to examine the relation between alcohol consumption and ischemic heart disease (IHD) mortality rates in Russia. A ge-standardized sex-specific male and female IHD mortality data for the period 1980-2005 and data on overall alcohol consumption were analyzed by means of ARIMA time series analysis. The results of the analysis showed that alcohol consumption was significantly associated with both male and female IHD mortality rates: a 1-liter increase in overall alcohol consumption would result in a 3.9% increase in the male IHD mortality rate and a 2.7% increase in the female IHD mortality rate. As a conclusion, the results of this study provide indirect support for the hypothesis that the drastic fluctuations in IHD mortality in Russia over recent decades are related to alcohol, as indicated by the close temporal association between number of deaths from IHD and overall alcohol consumption per capita.

Citas

Anderson, P. (2005). Alcohol and coronary heart disease. Addiciones, 7,

-10.

Andreeva, E., Ermakov, D., & Brenner H. (2008). The socioeconomic

etyology of suicide mortality in Russia. International Journal of Environment and Sustainable Development, 7, 21-48.

Averina, M., Nilssen, O., Brenn, T., Brox, J., Kalinin, A. G., & Arkhipovsky,

V. L. (2003). High cardiovascular mortality in Russia cannot be explained by the classical risk factors. The Archangelsk Study 2000. European Journal of Epidemiology, 18, 871-8.

Bagnardi, V., Zatonski, W., Scotti L., La Vecchia C., & Corrao G. (2008).

Does drinking pattern modify the effect of alcohol on the risk of coronary heart disease? Evidence from a meta-analysis. Journal Epidemiology Community Health, 62, 615-619.

Bobak, M., Gilmore, A., Mckee, M., & Marmot, M. (2006). Changes in

smoking prevalence in Russia, 1996-2004. Tobacco Control, 15, 131-135.

Box, G. E. P., & Jenkins, G. M. (1976). Time Series Analysis: forecasting

and control. London. Holden-Day Inc.

Brainerd, E., & Cutler, D. M. (2005). Autopsy on an Empire: Understanding mortality in Russia and the former Soviet Union. Journal of Economic Perspective, 19(1), 107-130.

Britton, A., & McKee, M. (2000). The relation between alcohol and cardiovascular disease in Eastern Europe. Explaining the paradox. Journal of Epidemiology and Community Health, 54(5), 328-332.

Chenet, L., McKee, M., Leon, D., Shkolnikov, V., & Vassin S. (2001).

Alcohol and cardiovascular mortality in Moscow: new evidence of a causal association. Journal of Epidemiology and Community Health, 52, 772-74.

Cockerham, W. C., Hinote, B. P., & Abbott, P. (2006). Psychological distress, gender, and health lifestyles in Belarus, Kazakhstan, Russia, and Ukraine. Social Science & Medicine, 63, 2381-2394.

Corrao, G., Rubbiati, L., Bagnardi, V., Zambon, A., & Poikolainen, K. (2000). Alcohol and coronary heart disease: a meta-analysis. Addiction, 95, 1505-23.

Gavrilova, N. S., Semyonova, V. G., Evdokushkina, G. N., & Gavrilov, L.A. (2000). The response of violent mortality to economic crisis in Russia. Population Research and Policy Review, 9, 397-419.

Ginter, E. (1995). Cardiovascular risk factors in the former communist

countries. Analysis of 40 European MONICA populations. European Journal of Epidemiology, 11, 199-205.

Gmel, G., Rehm, J., & Frick, U. (2003). Trinkmuster, Pro-Kopf-Konsum

von Alkohol und koronare Mortalitat. Sucht, 49, 95-104.

Greenwood, D. C., Muir, K. R., Packham C. J., & Madeley, R. J. (1996).

Coronary heart disease: a review of the role of psychosocial stress and social support. Journal of Public Health Medicine, 18(2), 221-231.

Hemstrom, O. (2001). Per capita alcohol consumption and ischemic heart disease mortality, Addiction, 96(Supplement 1), 93-112.

Hiroyasu, I., Chigusa, D., Yamamoto, A., Toyoshima, H., Tanabe, N., & Kikuchi, S. (2002). Perceived mental stress and mortality from cardiovascular disease among Japanese men and women. Circulation, 106, 1229-1234.

Kesteloot, H., Sans, S., & Kromhout, D. (2006). Dynamics of cardiovascular and all-cause mortality in Western and Eastern Europe between 1970 and 2000. European Heart Journal, 27, 107-113.

Kivimaki, M., Leino-Arjas, P., Luukkonen, R., Riihimaki, H., Vahtera, J., &

Kirjonen, J. (2002). Work stress and risk of cardiovascular mortality: prospective cohort study of industrial employees. British Medical Journal, 325, 857-864.

Kopp, M., Skrabski, A., Szanto, Z., & Siegrist, J. (2006). Psychosocial

determinants of premature cardiovascular mortality differences within Hungary. Journal of Epidemiology and Community Health, 60, 782-788.

Kuulasmaa, K., Tunstall-Pedoe, H., Dobson, A., Fortmann, S., Sans, S.,

Tolonen H., Evans A., Ferrario, M., & Tuomilehto, J. (2000). Estimation of contribution of changes in classic risk factors to trends in coronary-event rates across the WHO MONICA Project populations. Lancet, 355, 675-87.

Leon, D. A., & Shkolnikov, V. M. (2005). Social stress and the Russian

mortality crisis. Journal of American Medical Association, 279, 790-91.

Lucas, D. L., Brown, R. A., Wassef, M., & Giles, T. D. (2005). Alcohol and the cardiovascular system. Journal of the American College of Cardiology, 45, 1916-1924.

Malyutina, S., Bobak, M., Kurilovitch, S., Gafarov, V., Simonova, G., Nikitin, Y., & Marmot M. (2002). Relation between heavy and binge drinking and all-cause and cardiovascular mortality in Novosibirsk, Russia: a prospective cohort study. Lancet, 360, 1448-54.

Marmot, M. (1988). Psychosocial factors and cardiovascular disease:

epidemiological approaches. European Heart Journal, 6, 690-697.

Marmot, M. (2001). Commentary: reflection on alcohol and coronary heart disease. International Journal of Epidemiology, 30, 729-34.

McKee, M., & Britton, A. (1998). The positive relationship between alcohol and heart disease in Eastern Europe: potential physiological mechanisms. Journal of the Royal Society of Medicine, 91, 402-407.

McKee, M., Shkolnikov, V., & Leon, D. A. (2001). Alcohol is implicated in

the fluctuations in cardiovascular disease in Russia since the 1980s.

Annals of Epidemiology, 1, 11-6.

Mukamal, K. J., Conigrave, K. M., Mittleman, M. A., Camargo, C. A.,

Stampfer, M. J., Willett, W. C., & Rimm, E. B. (2003). Roles of drinking

pattern and type of alcohol consumed in coronary heart disease in men. The New England Journal of Medicine, 348(2), 109-18.

Nemtsov, A. V., & Razvodovsky, Y. E. (2008). Alcohol situation in Russia, 1980-2005. Social and Clinical Psychiatry, 2, 52-60.

Nemtsov, A. V. (2002). Alcohol-related human losses in Russia in the 1980s and 1990s. Addiction, 97, 1413-1425.

Nilssen, O., Averina, M., Brenn, T., Drox, J., Kalinin, A., & Archipovski, V.

(2005). Alcohol consumption and its relation to risk factors for cardiovascular disease in the north-west of Russia: the Archangelsk study. International Journal of Epidemiology, 34, 781-788.

Norstrom, T., & Skog, O. J. (2001). Alcohol and mortality: methodological

and analytical issue in aggregate analysis. Addiction, 96, 5-17.

Puddey, I. B., Rakic, V., Dimmitt, S. B., & Beilin, L. J. (1999). Influence of

pattern of drinking on cardiovascular disease and cardiovascular risk factors – a review. Addiction, 94, 649-663.

Ramstedt, M. (2009). Fluctuations in male ischemic heart disease mortality in Russia 1959–1998: Assessing the importance of alcohol. Drug and Alcohol Review, 28, 390-395.

Razvodovsky, Y. E. (2001). Alcohol and cardiovascular mortality: epidemiological aspect. Alcologia, 13, 107-113.

Razvodovsky, Y. E. (2009a). Alcohol consumption and mortality in Russia and Belarus. Medical News, 16, 41-46.

Razvodovsky, Y. E. (2009b). Aggregate level beverage specific effect of a sale on myocardial infarction mortality rate. Adicciones, 21, 229-238.

Razvodovsky, Y. E. (2009c). Alcohol poisoning and cardiovascular mortality in Russia 1956–2005. Alcoholism, 45, 27-42.

Razvodovsky, Y. E. (2010). Unrecorded alcohol consumption: quantitative methods of estimation. Alcoholism, 46, 15-24.

Roerecke, M., & Rehm, J. (2010). Irregular heavy drinking occasions and risk of ischemic heart disease: a systematic review and metaanalysis.

American Journal of Epidemiology, 171, 633-644.

Room, R. (2005). Commentary: pattern of drinking and the Russian heart. International Journal of Epidemiology, 34, 788-90.

Shkolnikov, V. M., McKee, M., Chervyakov, V. V., & Kyrianov, N. A. (2002). Is the link between alcohol and cardiovascular death among young Russian men attributable to misclassification of acute alcohol intoxication? Evidence from the city of Izhevsk. Journal of Epidemiology& Community Health, 56, 171-175.

Stuckler, D., King, L., & McKee, M. (2009). Mass privatization and the post-communist mortality crisis: a cross-national analysis. Lancet, 373, 399-407.

Wasserman, D., Varnik, A., & Eklund, G. (1994). Male suicides and alcohol consumption in the former USSR. Acta Psychiatrica Scandinavica, 89, 306-313.

Yukkala, T., Makinen, I. H., Kislitsyna, O., & Ferlander, S. (2008). Economic strain, social relations, gender, and binge drinking in Moscow. Social Science & Medicine, 66(3), 663-74.

Zaridze, D., Maximovitch, D., Lazarev, A., Igitov, V., Boroda, A. Boreham,

J., Boyle, P., Peto, R., & Boffetta, P. (2008). Alcohol poisoning is a main determinant of recent mortality trends in Russia: evidence from a detailed analysis of mortality statistics and autopsies. International Journal of Epidemiology, 38, 143-153.

Zatonski, W. A., & Willet, W. (2005). Changes in dietary fat and declining coronary heart disease in Poland: population based study. British Medical Journal, 331, 187-189.

Descargas

Publicado

2012-03-01

Número

Vol. 24 Núm. 1 (2012)

Sección

Originales