Psicosis etílica y mortalidad por todas las causas en Bielorrusia Alcohol psychoses and all-cause mortality in Belarus

Autores/as

  • Yury Evgeny Razvodovsky Grodno State Medical University. Enviar correspondencia a: Yury Evgeny Razvodovsky. Grodno State Medical University, Bielorrusia. 230009, Grodno, str. Gorky, Bielorrusia Tel.: + 375 152 70 18 84, fax: +375 152 43 53 41

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.20882/adicciones.261

Palabras clave:

psicosis etílica, mortalidad por todas las causas, análisis de series temporales ARIMA, Bielorrusia alcohol psychoses, all-cause mortality, ARIMA time series analysis, Belarus

Resumen

Antecedentes: La carga que representan los problemas relacionados con el alcohol en Europa Central y Oriental es la más alta del mundo. El nivel de consumo de alcohol en Bielorrusia se encuentra entre los más altos a nivel mundial, con un índice de consumo estimado de 14 litros de alcohol puro per cápita. Los desórdenes sociales, económicos y políticos experimentados en Bielorrusia durante los años que siguieron a la disolución de la Unión Soviética se han visto acompañados por un incremento sustancial de la mortalidad por todas las causas. Aunque el alcohol, en las antiguas Repúblicas Soviéticas, parece ser un contribuidor importante en la carga sobre dichas enfermedades, se han llevado a cabo pocas investigaciones sistemáticas sobre su impacto en la mortalidad por todas las causas en Bielorrusia. Objetivos: El objetivo del presente estudio es tratar este déficit particular en lo concerniente a la relación con la mortalidad total por alcohol utilizando datos a nivel agregado. Método: Las tendencias en la mortalidad por todas las causas y los índices de incidencia de la psicosis etílica (como sustituto del consumo de alcohol), desde 1970 hasta 2005, fueron examinados utilizando análisis de series temporales ARIMA para evaluar relaciones bivariables entre dos series temporales. Resultados: Los resultados del análisis de estas series temporales apuntan hacia una estrecha relación entre la mortalidad por todas las causas y los índices de psicosis etílica a nivel agregado. Conclusiones: Este estudio refrenda los hallazgos anteriores que sugieren la existencia de vínculos estrechos entre alcohol y mortalidad. Las conclusiones del presente estudio también apoyan la hipótesis de que el alcohol es un factor crucial en la crisis de mortalidad de Bielorrusia. Por lo tanto, el control del alcohol debe ser una prioridad clave en las políticas bielorrusas de salud pública.
Background: The burden of alcohol-related problems in central and eastern Europe is the highest in the world. The level of alcohol consumption in Belarus is among the highest in the world, with an annual consumption rate estimated to be 14 litres of pure alcohol per capita. The social, economic and political turmoil that Belarus has experiences in the years following the dissolution of the Soviet Union has been accompanied by a substantial rise in all-cause mortality. Although alcohol seems to be an important contributor to the burden of disease in the former Soviet republics, little systematic research has been undertaken on its impact on all-cause mortality in Belarus. Aims: The aim of the present study was to address this particular deficit concerning the alcohol-total mortality relationship in Belarus by using aggregate-level data. Method: Trends in the all-cause mortality and alcohol psychoses incidence rates (as a proxy for alcohol consumption) from 1970 to 2005 were analyzed employing ARIMA time series analysis in order to asses bivariate relationship between the two time series. Results: The results of time series analysis suggest a close relationship between all-cause mortality and alcohol psychoses rates at the aggregate level. Conclusions: This study replicates the previous findings that suggested close link between alcohol and mortality. The outcome of present study also supports the hypothesis that alcohol is a crucial factor of mortality crisis in Belarus. Therefore, alcohol control must be a key priority for Belorussian public health policy.

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Publicado

2008-12-01

Número

Vol. 20 Núm. 4 (2008)

Sección

Originales