Alcohol psychoses and all-cause mortality in Belarus
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.20882/adicciones.261Keywords:
alcohol psychoses, all-cause mortality, ARIMA time series analysis, BelarusAbstract
Background: The burden of alcohol-related problems in central and eastern Europe is the highest in the world. The level of alcohol consumption in Belarus is among the highest in the world, with an annual consumption rate estimated to be 14 litres of pure alcohol per capita. The social, economic and political turmoil that Belarus has experiences in the years following the dissolution of the Soviet Union has been accompanied by a substantial rise in all-cause mortality. Although alcohol seems to be an important contributor to the burden of disease in the former Soviet republics, little systematic research has been undertaken on its impact on all-cause mortality in Belarus. Aims: The aim of the present study was to address this particular deficit concerning the alcohol-total mortality relationship in Belarus by using aggregate-level data. Method: Trends in the all-cause mortality and alcohol psychoses incidence rates (as a proxy for alcohol consumption) from 1970 to 2005 were analyzed employing ARIMA time series analysis in order to asses bivariate relationship between the two time series. Results: The results of time series analysis suggest a close relationship between all-cause mortality and alcohol psychoses rates at the aggregate level. Conclusions: This study replicates the previous findings that suggested close link between alcohol and mortality. The outcome of present study also supports the hypothesis that alcohol is a crucial factor of mortality crisis in Belarus. Therefore, alcohol control must be a key priority for Belorussian public health policy.References
Box, G.E.P. y Jenkins, G. M. (1976). Time Series Analysis: forecasting and control. London. Holden-Day Inc.
Her, M. y Rehm, J. (1998). Alcohol and all-cause mortality in Europe 1982-1990: a pooled cross-section time-series analysis. Addiction, 93: 1335-40.
Leon, D.A., Chenet, L., Shkolnikov, V. M., Zakharov, S., Shapiro, J., Rakhmanova, G., Vassin, S. y McKee, M. (1997). Huge variation in Russian mortality rates 1984-94: artefact, alcohol, or what? Lancet, 350:
-88.
Leon, D., Saburova, L., Tomkins, S., Andreev, E., Kiryanov, N., McKee, M. y Shkolnicov, V. (2007). Hazardous alcohol drinking and premature mortality in Russia: a population based case-control study. Lancet, 369: 2001-2009.
Nemtsov, A.V. (2001). Alcohol related mortality in Russia, 1980-90s. Moscow. Nalex.
Nemtsov, A.V. (2002). Alcohol-related human losses in Russia in the 1980s and 1990s. Addiction, 97: 1413-25.
Nemtsov, A.V. y Razvodovsky, Y.E. (2008). Alcohol situation in Russia, 1980-2005. Social and Clinical Psychiatry, 2: 52-60.
Norström, T. (2001). Per capita alcohol consumption and allcause
mortality in 14 European countries. Addiction, 96: 113-28.
Norström, T. (2004). Per capita alcohol consumption and all-cause mortality in Canada, 1950-98. Addiction, 99:1274-78.
Norström, T. (2006). Per capita alcohol consumption and allcause mortality in Russia. In: Understanding choice, explaining behaviour. Essays in honour of Ole-Jorgen Skog. Oslo Academic Press. P. 211-223.
Norstrom, T. y Ramstedt M. (2005). Mortality and population drinking: a review of the literature. Drug and Alcohol Review, 24: 537-47.
Norstrom, T. y Skog, O.J. (2001). Alcohol and mortality: methodological and analytical issue in aggregate analysis. Addiction, 96: 5-17.
Popova, S., Rehm, J., Patra, J. y Zatonski, V. (2007): Comparing alcohol consumption in central and eastern Europe to other European countries. Alcohol & Alcoholism, 42: 456-65.
Razvodovsky, Y. E. (2001). The association between the level of vodka consumption per capita and violent mortality rate: results of time-series analysis. Adicciones, 13 (Suppl.1): 77-92.
Razvodovsky, Y. E. (2002a). Aggregate level association between alcohol consumption and all-cause mortality. Alcoholism, 38: 17-26.
Razvodovsky, Y. E. (2002b) Asociación entre consumo de vodka y tasa de mortalidad relacionada con el alcohol, a nivel agregado, utilizando series temporales. Adicciones, 14: 43-60.
Razvodovsky, Y. E. (2005). Aggregate level time series association between alcohol consumption and cardiovascular mortality. Adicciones, 17: 43-60.
Razvodovsky, Y. E. (2007). Suicide and alcohol poisoning in Belarus between 1970 and 2005. Adicciones, 19:423-432.
Razvodovsky, Y. E. (2008). Indicators of alcohol-related problems in Belarus. Medical University Press. Grodno.
Rehm, J. y Gmel, G. (2001). Aggregate time-series regression in the field of alcohol. Addiction, 96:945-54.
Rehm, J., Taylor, B. y Patra, J. (2006). Volume of alcohol consumption, pattern of drinking and burden of disease in the European region, Addiction, 101: 1086-95.
Semenciw, R. M., Morrison, H. I., Mao, Y., Johansen, H., Davies, J. y Wigle, D.T. (1988). Major risk factors for cardiovascular disease mortality in adults: results from the Nutrition Canada Survey cohort. International
Journal of Epidemiology, 17: 317-24.
Stickley, A., Leinsalu, M., Andreev, E., Razvodovsky, Y. E., Vagero, D. y McKee, M. (2007). Alcohol poisoning in Russia and the countries in the European part of the former Soviet Union, 1970-2002. European Journal of
Public Health, 17: 444-49.
