Intoxicación etílica y mortalidad por úlcera duodenal en Rusia, 1965-2005
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.20882/adicciones.733Palabras clave:
úlcera duodenal, intoxicación etílica mortal, análisis de series temporales ARIMA, Rusia, 1965-2005.Resumen
Antecedentes: La úlcera péptica es un problema clínico habitual. Se ha demostrado que el consumo compulsivo de alcohol aumenta el riesgo de úlcera a nivel individual. Objetivo: Calcular el efecto a nivel agregado del consumo compulsivo de alcohol sobre la tasa de mortalidad por úlcera duodenal. Método: Las tendencias de intoxicación etílica fatal por edad y sexo y las tasas de mortalidad por úlcera duodenal en Rusia entre 1965 y 2005 se estudiaron utilizando un análisis ARIMA (promedio autorregresivo integrado de media móvil) para estimar la relación bivariada entre las dos series temporales. Resultados: El análisis de las series temporales indica la presencia de una relación estadísticamente significativa entre las dos series temporales en hombres (r = 0.51; SE = 0.16). La relación entre las dos series temporales también es positiva en el caso de las mujeres, pero no resulta estadísticamente significativa ( r = 0.25; SE = 0.14). Conclusión: Este artículo ofrece nuevas pruebas epidemiológicas de la relación a nivel agregado entre el alcohol y la tasa de mortalidad por úlcera duodenal. El resultado de este estudio apoya asimismo la hipótesis de que el consumo compulsivo de licores de alta gradación constituye un factor de riesgo a nivel individual.Citas
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