Alcohol poisoning and duodenum ulcer mortality in Russia, 1965 - 2005
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.20882/adicciones.733Keywords:
duodenum ulcer, fatal alcohol poisoning, ARIMA time series analysis, Russia, 1965-2005Abstract
Background: Peptic ulcer disease is a common clinical problem. Binge drinking has been shown to increase the risk of ulcer at the individual level. Purpose: To estimate the aggregate level effect of binge drinking on duodenum ulcer mortality rate. Method: Trends in age-adjusted, sex-specific fatal alcohol poisoning and duodenum ulcer mortality rates in Russia from 1965 to 2005 were analyzed employing an ARIMA analysis in order to asses a bivariate relationship between the two time series. Results: Time series analysis indicate the presence of statistically significant association between the two series for male (r = o.51; SE = 0.16). The association between the two time series for female is also positive, however, statistically not significant ( r = 0.25; SE = 0.14). Conclusion: This paper present new epidemiological evidence of aggregate level relationship between alcohol and duodenum ulcer mortality rate. The outcome of this study also supports the hypothesis that binge drinking of strong spirits is a risk factor of ulcer at the individual level.References
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