Fraction of stroke mortality attributable to alcohol consumption in Russia
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.20882/adicciones.14Keywords:
stroke, mortality, alcohol consumption, ARIMA time series analysis, Russia, 1980-2005.Abstract
Stroke is an international health problem with high associated human and economic costs. The mortality rate from stroke in Russia is one of the highest in the world. Risk factors identification is therefore a high priority from the public health perspective. Epidemiological evidence suggests that binge drinking is an important determinant of high stroke mortality rate in Russia. The aim of the present study was to estimate the premature stroke mortality attributable to alcohol abuse in Russia on the basis of aggregate-level data of stroke mortality and alcohol consumption. Age-standardized sex-specific male and female stroke mortality data for the period 1980-2005 and data on overall alcohol consumption were analyzed by means ARIMA time series analysis. The results of the analysis suggest that 26.8% of all male stroke deaths and 18.4% female stroke deaths in Russia could be attributed to alcohol. The estimated alcohol-attributable fraction for men ranged from 16.2% (75+ age group) to 57,5% (30-44 age group) and for women from 21.7% (60-74 age group) and 43.5% (30-44 age group). The outcomes of this study provide support for the hypothesis that alcohol is an important contributor to the high stroke mortality rate in Russian Federation. Therefore prevention of alcohol-attributable harm should be a major public health priority in Russia. Given the distribution of alcohol-related stroke deaths, interventions should be focused on the young and middle-aged men and women.References
Andreev, E. M., Nolte, E., Shkolnikov, V. M., Varavicova, E., & McKee. M. (2003). The evolving pattern of avoidable mortality in Russia. International Journal of Epidemiology, 32, 437-446. doi: 10.1093/ije/dyg085
Bobak, M., Gilmore, A., Mckee, M., & Marmot, M. (2006). Changes in smoking prevalence in Russia, 1996-2004. Tobacco Control, 15, 131-135.
Box, G. E. P., & Jenkins, G. M. (1976). Time Series Analysis: forecasting and control. London: Holden-Day Inc.
Cockerham, W. C., Hinote, B. P., & Abbott, P. (2006). Psychological distress, gender, and health lifestyles in Belarus, Kazakhstan, Russia, and Ukraine. Social Science & Medicine, 63, 2381-2394.
Djousse, L., Ellison, R. C., Beiser, A., Scaramucci, A., D’Agostino, R. B., & Wolf P. A. (2002). Alcohol consumption and risk of ischemic stroke. The Framingham study. Stroke, 33, 907-912.
Donna, G. A., Fisher, M., Macleod M., & Davis S. M. (2007). Stroke. Lancet, 370, 1-12. doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(08)60694-7.
Feigin, V. L., Wiebers, D. O., Nikitin, Y. P., O’Fallon, W. M., & Whisnant J. P. (1998). Risk factors for ischemic stroke in a Russian community. A population-based case-control study. Stroke, 29, 33-39.
Field, M. G. (2005). A comment on the Russian health crisis. Eurasian Geography and Economics, 46, 5. doi:10.2747/1538-7216.46.7.552
Ginter, E. (1995). Cardiovascular risk factors in the former communist countries. Analysis of 40 European MONICA populations. European Journal of Epidemiology, 11, 199-205.
Gorelic P. B. (1987). Alcohol and stroke. Stroke, 18, 268-270.
Hillbom, M., Numminen, H., & Juvela S. (1999). Recent heavy drinking of alcohol and embolic stroke. Stroke, 30, 2307-2312.
Kesteloot, H., Sans, S., & Kromhout, D. (2006). Dynamics of cardiovascular and all-cause mortality in Western and Eastern Europe between 1970 and 2000. European Heart Journal, 27, 107-113. doi: 10.1093/eurheartj/ehi511
Kim, A. S., & Johnston S. C. (2011). Global variation in the relative burden of stroke and ischemic heart disease. Circulation, 124, 314-323. doi: 10.1161/CIRCULATIONAHA.111.018820
Leon, D. A., & Shkolnikov, V. M. (2005). Social stress and the Russian mortality crisis. Journal of American Medical Association, 279, 790-91. doi:10.1001/jama.279.10.790.
Leon, D., Saburova, L., Tomkins, S., Andreev E., Kiryanov N., McKee M. & Shkolnikov V. (2007). Hazardous alcohol drinking and premature mortality in Russia: a population based case-control study. Lancet, 369, 2001-2009.
McKee, M., & Britton, A. (1998). The positive relationship between alcohol and heart disease in Eastern Europe: potential physiological mechanisms. Journal of the Royal Society of Medicine, 91, 402-407.
Mostofsky, E., Burger, M. R., Schlaug, G., Mukamal, K. J., Rosamond, W. D., & Mittleman M. A. (2010). Alcohol and acute ischemic stroke onset. The stroke onset study. Stroke, 42, 1-4. doi: 10.1161/STROKEAHA.110.580092.
Muller-Nordhorn, J., Binting, S., Roll, S., & Willich, N. (2008). An update on regional variation in cardiovascular mortality within Europe. European Heart Journal, 29,1316-1326. doi: 10.1093/eurheartj/ehm604
Nemtsov, A. V. (2002). Alcohol-related human losses in Russia in the 1980s and 1990s. Addiction, 97, 1413-1425.
Nemtsov, A.V., & Razvodovsky, Y. E. (2008). Alcohol situation in Russia, 1980-2005. Social and Clinical Psychiatry, 2, 52-60.
Norström, T. (1989). The use of aggregate data in alcohol epidemiology. British Journal of Addiction, 84, 969-977.
Norström, T., & Skog, O. J. (2001). Alcohol and mortality: methodological and analytical issue in aggregate analysis. Addiction, 96, 5-17.
Pajak, A., & Kozela, M. (2012). Cardiovascular disease in Central and Eastern Europe. Public Health Review, 33, 416-435.
Patra, J., Taylor, B., Irving, H., Roerecke, M., Baliunas, D., Mohapatra, S., & Rehm J. (2010). Alcohol consumption and the risk of morbidity and mortality for different stroke types-a systematic review and meta-analysis. BMC Public Health, 10, 258. doi:10.1186/1471-2458-10-258
Perlman, F. J. A. (2010). Drinking in transition: trends in alcohol consumption in Russia 1994–2004. BMC Public Health, 10, 2-13. doi:10.1186/1471-2458-10-691
Petruchin, I. S., & Lunina E. Y. (2012). Cardiovascular disease risk factors and mortality in Russia: challenges and barriers. Public Health Review, 33, 436-449.
Ramstedt, M. (2009). Fluctuations in male ischemic heart disease mortality in Russia 1959–1998: Assessing the importance of alcohol. Drug and Alcohol Review, 28, 390-395. doi: 10.1111/j.1465-3362.2009.00059.x
Razvodovsky, Y. E. (2005). Aggregate level time series association between alcohol consumption and cardiovascular mortality, Adicciones, 17, 43-60.
Razvodovsky, Y. E. (2006). Aggregate level association between alcohol and diabetes mellitus mortality rate. Adicciones, 18, 275-282.
Razvodovsky, Y. E. (2009). Aggregate level beverage specific effect of alcohol sale on myocardial infarction mortality. Adicciones, 21, 229-238.
Razvodovsky, Y. E. (2010a). Unrecorded alcohol consumption: quantitative methods of estimation. Alcoholism, 46, 15-24.
Razvodovsky, Y. E. (2010b). Beverage specific alcohol sales and violent mortality in Russia. Adicciones, 22, 311-316.
Razvodovsky, Y. E. (2012a). Estimation of alcohol attributable fraction of mortality in Russia. Adicciones, 24, 1-7.
Razvodovsky, Y. E. (2012b). Alcohol consumption and ischemic mortality in Russia. Adicciones, 24, 23-30.
Razvodovsky, Y. E. (2014). The effects of beverage type on hypertension mortality in Russia. International Journal of Cardiovascular and Cerebrovascular Disease, 2, 6-10. doi: 10.13189/ijccd.2014.020102
Reynolds, K., Lewis, L. B., Nolen, J. D. L., Kinney, G. L., Sathya, B., & He J. (2003). Alcohol consumption and risk of stroke. A Meta-analysis. Journal of the American Medical Association, 289, 579-588. doi:10.1001/jama.289.5.579.
Roberts B., Stickley A., Balabanova P., Haerpfer C., & McKee M. (2012). The persistence of irregular treatment of hypertension in the former Soviet Union. Journal of Epidemiology Community Health, 66, 1079-1082. doi:10.1136/jech-2011-200645
Romelsjo, A., & Leifman A. (1999). Associated between alcohol consumption and mortality, myocardial infarction, and stroke in 25 year follow up of 49618 young Swedish men. British Medical Journal, 319, 821-822.
Sacco, R., Elkind, M., Boden-Albala, B., Lin, I. F., Kargman, D. E., Hauser, W. A.,… Paik M. C. (1999). The protective effects of moderate alcohol consumption on ischemic stroke. Journal of the American Medical Association, 281 (1), 53-60.
Shkolnikov, V. M., McKee, M., Chervyakov, V. V., & Kyrianov, N. A. (2002). Is the link between alcohol and cardiovascular death among young Russian men attributable to misclassification of acute alcohol intoxication? Evidence from the city of Izhevsk. Journal of Epidemiology & Community Health, 56, 171-175.
Stickley, A., Leinsalu, M., Andreew, E., Razvodovsky, Y. E., Vagero, D. & McKee, M. (2007). Alcohol poisoning in Russia and the countries in the European part of the former Soviet Union, 1970-2002. European Journal of Public Health, 1, 444–449.
Sundell, L., Salomaa, V., Vartiainen, E., Poikolainen, K., & Laatikainen T. (2008). Increased stroke risk is related to a binge drinking habit. Stroke, 39, 3179-3184. doi: 10.1161/STROKEAHA.108.520817
Telishevska, M., Chenet, L., & McKee, M. (2001). Toward an understanding of the high death rate among young people with diabetes in Ukraine. Diabetic Medicine, 18, 3-9.
