Aggregate level beverage specific effect of alcohol sale on myocardial infarction mortality rate
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.20882/adicciones.233Keywords:
myocardial infarction, alcohol sale, ARIMA time series analysis, Belarus, 1970-2005Abstract
Background: The pronounced fluctuations in cardiovascular mortality in the countries of the former Soviet Union over the past decades have attracted considerable interest. The mounting evidence suggests that binge drinking pattern is a potentially important contributor to higher cardiovascular mortality rate in the former Soviet republics. There is assumption that if occasional heavy drinking of strong spirits increases the risk of cardiovascular mortality, countries where this is predominant drinking pattern should display positive association between spirits consumption and cardiovascular mortality at the aggregate level. Purpose: To estimate the aggregate level beverage specific effect of alcohol sale on myocardial infarction mortality rate in drinking culture, which combine a higher level of spirits consumption per capita with the explosive drinking pattern. Method: Trends in beverage specific alcohol sale per capita and myocardial infarction mortality rate from 1970 to 2005 in Belarus were analyzed employing ARIMA time series analysis. Results: The results of time series analysis suggest positive relation between strong spirits (vodka) sale per capita and myocardial infarction mortality rate. The analysis suggests that a 1 liter increase in vodka sale per capita would result in a 7.2% increase in myocardial infarction mortality rate (8.2% increase in male mortality and 6.8% increase in female mortality). Conclusions: the results of the present study suggest a positive relation between vodka sale and myocardial infarction mortality rate at aggregate level and support the hypothesis that binge drinking of strong spirits is a risk factor of myocardial infarction at the individual level. Thus, from a public policy point of view, the outcome of this study suggests that cardiovascularrelated mortality prevention programs should put more focus on addressing alcohol consumption structure.References
Anderson, P. (2005). Alcohol and coronary heart disease. Adicciones, 17: 3-10.
Bhatia, M. S., Tiwari, A. y Balkrishna, G. H. (1990). Type A behaviour, life events and myocardial infarction: An inpatient study in Sweden. Journal of Psychosomatic Research, 92: 95-100.
Box, G.E.P. y Jenkins G.M. (1976). Time Series Analysis: forecasting and control. London: Holden-Day Inc.
Brenner, M.H. (1987). Economic change, alcohol consumption andheart disease mortality in nine industrialized countries. Social Science & Medicine, 25: 119-132.
Britton, A. y McKee, M. (2000). The relation between alcohol and cardiovascular disease in Eastern Europe. Explaining the
paradox. Journal of Epidemiology & Community Health, 54:
-332.
Chenet, L., McKee, M., Leon, D., Shkolnikov, V. y Vassin, S. (2001). Alcohol and cardiovascular mortality in Moscow: new evidence of a causal association. Journal of Epidemiolology and
Community Health, 52: 772-74.
Corrao, G., Rubbiati, L., Bagnardi, V., Zambon, A. y Poikolainen, K. (2000). Alcohol and coronary heart disease: a meta-analysis.
Addiction, 95: 1505-23.
Gavrilova, N.S., Semyonova, V.G., Evdokushkina, G.N. y Gavrilov, L.A. (2000). The response of violent mortality to economic crisis in Russia. Population Research and Policy Review, 19: 397-419.
Greenwood, D.C., Muir, K.R., Packham C.J. y Madeley, R.J. (1996). Coronary heart disease: a review of the role of psychosocial stress and social support. Journal of Public Health Medicine, 18: 221-231.
Hemstrom, O. (2001). Per capita alcohol consumption and ischemic heart disease mortality. Addiction, 96: 93-112.
Hiroyasu, I., Chigusa, D., Yamamoto, A., Toyoshima, H., Tanabe, N. y Kikuchi, S. (2002). Perceived mental stress and mortality from cardiovascular disease among Japanese men and women.
Circulation, 106: 1229-1234.
Kauhanen, J., Kaplan, G.A., Goldberg, D.E. y Salonen, J.T. (1997). Beer binging and mortality – results from the Kuopio ischemic heart disease risk factor study, a prospective population based study. British Medical Journal, 315: 846-851.
Kivimaki, M., Leino-Arjas, P., Luukkonen, R., Riihimaki, H., Vahtera, J. y Kirjonen, J. (2002). Work stress and risk of cardiovascular mortality: prospective cohort study of industrial employees. British Medical Journal, 325: 857-864.
Klatsky, A.L., Armstrong, M.A. y Friedman, G.D. (1997). Red wine, white wine, liquor, beer, and risk for coronary artery disease hospitalization. American Journal of Cardiology, 80: 416-20.
Kuulasmaa, K., Tunstall-Pedoe, H., Dobson, A., Fortmann, S., Sans, S., Tolonen, H., Evans, A., Ferrario, M. y Tuomilehto, J. (2000). Estimation of contribution of changes in classic risk factors to trends in coronary-event rates across the WHO MONICA Project populations. Lancet, 355: 675-87.
Marmot, M. G. (1988). Psychosocial factors and cardiovascular
disease: epidemiological approaches. European Heart Journal, 6: 690-697.
Marmot, M.G. (2001). Commentary: reflection on alcohol and coronary heart disease. International Journal of Epidemiology, 30: 729-34.
McElduff, P. y Dobson, A.J. (1997). How much alcohol and how often? Population based case-control study of alcohol consumption and risk of major coronary events. British Medical Journal, 314: 1159-1164.
Mucamal, K.J., Conigrave, K.M., Mittleman, M.A., Camargo, C.A.Jr., Stampfer, M.J., Willet, W.C. y Rimm, E.B. (2003). Roles of drinking pattern and type of alcoholic consumed in coronary heart disease in men. New England Journal of Medicine, 348: 109-118.
Nemtsov, A.V. (2002). Alcohol-related human losses in Russia in the 1980s and 1990s. Addiction, 97: 1413-1425.
Norstrom, T. y Skog, O.J. (2001). Alcohol and mortality: methodological and analytical issue in aggregate analysis. Addiction, 96: 5-17.
Ockene, I.S. y Miller, N.H. (1997). Cigarette Smoking, Cardiovascular Disease and Stroke. Circulation, 96: 3243-3247.
Pares, A. & Caballeria, J. (2002). Patología orgánica. Adicciones, 14 (Suppl.1): 155-173.
Puddey, I.B., Rakic, V., Dimmitt, S.B. y Beilin, L.J. (1999). Influence of pattern of drinking on cardiovascular disease and cardiovascular risk factors – a review. Addiction, 94: 649-663.
Razvodovsky, Y.E. (2001). Alcohol and cardiovascular mortality:
epidemiological aspect. Alcologia, 13: 107-113.
Razvodovsky, Y.E. (2003). Alcohol and mortality crisis in Belarus. Grodno: Medical University Press.
Razvodovsky, Y.E. (2005). Aggregate level time series association between alcohol consumption and cardiovascular mortality. Adicciones, 17: 43-60.
Razvodovsky, Y.E. (2008). Alcohol psychoses and all-cause mortality in Belarus. Adicciones, 20: 395-405.
Room R., Babor, T., Rehm, J. (2005). Alcohol and public health. Lancet, 365: 519-530.
Rossinen, J., Partanen J., Koskinen P., Toivonen, L., Kupari, M. y
Nieminen, M.S. (1996): Acute heavy alcohol intake increases
silent myocardial ischemia in patients with stable angina
pectoris. Heart, 75: 563-567.
Semenciw, R.M., Morrison, H.I., Mao, Y., Johansen, H., Davies, J. y Wigle, D.T. (1988). Major risk factors for cardiovascular disease mortality in adults: results from the Nutrition Canada Survey cohort. International Journal of Epidemiology, 17: 317-324.
Shaper, A.G., Phillips, A.N., Pocock, S.J. y Walker, M. (1987). Alcohol and ischaemic heart disease in middle aged British men. British Medical Journal, 294: 733-737.
Shaper, A.G. y Wannamethee, S.G. (2000). Alcohol intake and mortality in middle aged men with diagnosed coronary heart disease. Heart, 83: 394-399.
Stansfeld, S.A., Fuhrer, R., Shipley, M.J. y Marmot, M.G. (2002).
Psychosocial distress as a risk factor for coronary heart disease
in the Whitehall II Study. International Journal of Epidemiology,
: 248-255.
Stone, R. (2000). Stress: The invisible hand in Eastern Europe’s death rates. Science, 288: 1732-1733
Turnet, Ch. & Anderson, P. (1990). Alcohol and cardiovascular disease: what is the relationship? Addiction, 85: 851-853.
