Suicide and alcohol poisoning in Belarus between 1970 and 2005
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.20882/adicciones.307Keywords:
suicide, fatal alcohol poisoning, ARIMA time series analysis, Belarus, binge drinkingAbstract
Background: The association between alcohol and suicide is well documented. The solid body of research and empirical evidence suggests that hazardous pattern of alcohol consumption (binge drinking) lead to quicker and deeper intoxication, increasing the propensity for alcohol-related suicide. Purpose: To estimate the aggregate level effect of binge drinking on suicide rate. Method: Trends in suicide and fatal alcohol poisoning rate (as a proxy for binge drinking) from 1970 to 2005 in Belarus were analyzed employing ARIMA analysis in order to assess bivariate relationship between two time series. Results: The results of time series analysis suggests close relationship between suicide and fatal alcohol poisoning rate at aggregate level. Conclusion: This study supports the hypothesis that suicide and alcohol closely connected in culture with prevailing intoxication-oriented drinking patterns and adds to the growing body of evidence that a substantial proportion of suicide in Belarus is due to acute effect of binge drinking.References
Box, G. E. P. Jenkins, G. M. (1976): Time Series Analysis: forecasting and control. London. Holden-Day Inc.
Caces, P., Harford, T. (1998): Time series analyses of alcohol consumption and suicide mortality in the US, 1984-1987. J. Studies Alcohol, 59: 455-461.
Gavrilova, N.S., Semyonova, V. G., Evdokushkina, G. N., Gavrilov, L. A. (2000): The response of violent mortality to economic crisis in Russia. Population Research and Policy Review, 19: 397-419.
Gruenewald, P., Ponicki, W., Mitchell, P. (1993): Suicide rates and alcohol consumption in the US, 1970-1989. Addiction, 90:1063-1075.
Lester, D. (1995) The association between alcohol consumption and suicide and homicide rates: a study of 13 nations. Alcohol and Alcoholism, 13: 98-100.
Lester, D. (1998) Suicide and homicide after the fall of communist regimes. Eur Psychiatry, 13: 98-100.
Nemtsov, A. (2003) Suicide and alcohol consumption in Russia, 1965-1999. Drug and Alcohol Dependence, 71: 161-168.
Norstrom, T. (1995) Alcohol and suicide: a comparative analysis of France and Sweden. Addiction, 90:1463-1469.
Norstrom, T., Skog, O. J. (2001): Alcohol and mortality: methodological and analytical issue in aggregate analysis. Addiction, 96: 5-17.
Pridemore W.A. (2002). Vodka and violence: alcohol consumption and homicide rates in Russia. American Journal of Public Health, 92: 1921-1930.
Pridemore, W. A. (2006) Heavy drinking and suicide in Russia. Social Forces, 85: 413-430.
Ramstedt, M. (2001). Alcohol and suicide in 14 European countries. Addiction, 96:59-75.
Razvodovsky, Yu.E. (2001) The association between the level of alcohol consumption per capita and suicide rate: results of time-series analysis. Alcoholism, 2: 35-43.
Razvodovsky, Yu.E. (2003). Association between distilled spirits consumption and violent mortality rate. Drugs: Education, Prevention and Policy, 10: 223-235.
Rossow, I. (1993). Suicide, alcohol and divorce: Aspects of gender and family integration. Addiction, 88: 1659‑1665.
Skog, O. J., Elekes, Z. (1993). Alcohol and the 1950‑1990 suicide trend ‑ Is there a causal connection? Acta Sociologica, 36: 33‑46.
Varnik, A., Wasserman, D., Dankowixz, M., Eklund, G. (1998): Age-specific suicide rates in the Slavic and Baltic regions of the former USSR during perestroika, in comparison with 22 European countries. Acta Psychiatr Scand, 98 (Suppl. 394): 20-25.
Wasserman, D., Varnik, A., Eklund, G. (1994). Male suicides and alcohol consumption in the former USSR. Acta Psychiatr Scand, 89: 306-313.
